ben

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-0.211939

Relative Brier Score

60

Forecasts

2

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 1 18 60 91
Comments 0 1 6 3 13
Questions Forecasted 0 1 3 5 7
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 2 3
 Definitions
New Badge
ben
earned a new badge:

Forecaster of the Month - Jun 2025

Top 10% of the previous month's accuracy leaderboard.
New Prediction
ben
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (0%)
Less than 250
9% (0%)
More than or equal to 250 but less than 500
68% (0%)
More than or equal to 500 but less than 750
20% (0%)
More than or equal to 750
Why do you think you're right?
Test
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Pre mortem
Files
New Badge
ben
earned a new badge:

Forecaster of the Month - May 2025

Top 10% of the previous month's accuracy leaderboard.
New Badge
ben
earned a new badge:

Forecaster of the Month - Apr 2025

Top 10% of the previous month's accuracy leaderboard.
New Badge
ben
earned a new badge:

Forecaster of the Month - Mar 2025

Top 10% of the previous month's accuracy leaderboard.
New Badge
ben
earned a new badge:

Forecaster of the Month - Feb 2025

Top 10% of the previous month's accuracy leaderboard.
New Badge
ben
earned a new badge:

Forecaster of the Month - Dec 2024

Top 10% of the previous month's accuracy leaderboard.
New Badge
ben
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster - Dec 2024

Make 5 forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
ben
made their 46th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
56% (0%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?

https://rand.org in pre mortem

Files
New Prediction
ben
made their 45th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
56% (0%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?

Test

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Do mentions get found in pre-mortems @bensep20 

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username